A new research forecast has revealed when thousands of glaciers around the world will collapse due to climate change.
The ETH Zurich research has predicted for the first time how many glaciers in the world would survive by the end of this century.
According to findings, only 18,000 glaciers worldwide would survive if global temperatures rose to +4.0°C. On the other hand, if the world managed to limit global warming to +1.5°C, roughly 100,000 glaciers could be preserved.
The glacier’s impending extinction point
In their study, the researchers also identified a crucial turning point, called Peak Glacier Extinction, defined as a single year in which the largest number of individual glaciers will disappear.
For a global timeline, peak loss is expected around 2041 if warming is limited to +1.5°C. At extreme temperatures of +4°C the peak shifts to 2055, with losses doubling from 2000 to 4000 glaciers per year.
More worryingly, Central Europe is on the front line, with peak losses expected even earlier, between 2033 and 2041.
“The results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed,” said Daniel Farinotti, co-author of the study and professor of Glaciology at ETH Zurich.
An almost total collapse in the Alps
Research shows that the projections for the European Alps are more threatening. If temperatures follow the current path of +2.7°C, there would be only 110 glaciers left by 2100. In the worst case, characterized by high global temperatures, only 20 glaciers could survive in the region.
While talking about the consequences of glacier collapse, Van Tricht said: “The melting of a small glacier hardly contributes to the rising of the seas. But when a glacier disappears completely, it can have serious consequences for tourism in a valley.”
He continued: “Every glacier is connected to a place, a story and people who feel its loss. That’s why we work both to protect the glaciers that remain and to keep alive the memory of those that have disappeared.”
